K. Scott Alberts Professor of Statistics Truman State University salberts@truman.edu Violette Hall 2132 660.785.7649	Spring 2012 Office Hours:   Wkdays 9:45-11:15 AM add'l times by appt.

Objectives: By the end of this course, a successful student will:

• Know the vocabulary and basic rules of probability and statistics.

• Understand tendencies present in common random events.

• Be able to interpret simple real world data and charts of one or two samples.

• Be familiar with issues of data collection, analysis, and drawing conclusions from data

• Achieve a basic level of statistical proficiency on MSExcel and/or SPSS

Textbooks and Materials:
Sullivan III, Michael, (2008) Fundamentals of Statistics, 3rd ed. Prentice-Hall. ISBN 013-156987-2

Huff, Darrell. How to Lie with Statistics, (any edition), Norton and company.  ISBN 0-39-331072-8
     (you can share this one - It's not ordered by the bookstore - several copies are on reserve in the library.)

You will also want a moderately good calculator that can do combinations.
     (You need "nCr" on the calculator - Wal-Mart has several under $10)
You need a personal thermometer; you should have one anyway.
    (You can get a digital one at Wal-Mart or Walgreens for $15-$30. Sharing is icky unless you have the good kind with covers.)
All other materials will be provided as needed 

Honor Code and Academic Integrity: This course uses an honor code. What this means is that I treat you and your colleagues as grown-ups. You are responsible for your own behavior and for what you see. You are the principal beneficiary of an honest university, and the principal victim of a university without integrity. I definitively think that cheating is not a victimless crime.

I trust you to police yourself, both individually and collectively. If you see something dishonest, I expect that you will try to intervene to stop it. In addition, I assume that you will inform me if something dishonest has happened. A person who has seen dishonest behavior and doesn't tell me about it deserves the same penalty as the person who cheats. I occasionally ask you to affirm your honor by signing an honor pledge, similar to the one I give you on the first day of class.

It is assumed that everyone will behave in a trustworthy and honest manner throughout this course. I give a great benefit of the doubt as long as possible, but this class has no room for those who won't play fair.

I have no patience for dishonesty. Cheating, Plagiarism, and other unethical or dishonest acts are not tolerated in this class. If you have any questions about what particular behaviors violate the policy in this class, please ask me.

Any cheating or violation of this code normally results in failing the course and forwarding to the Campus Judicial Officer and the Academic Affairs Office.

Evaluation: Course grades are determined by combining all of the points for the semester, which comes from randomly collected homework assignments, randomly occurring quizzes, projects, midterms, and a comprehensive final exam, as well as a bonus system.

A mediocre student should expect a low C, although  I hope that none of you are mediocre students. I plan to use a straight percentage system, with the possibility of a small curve applied at the end.

This system is designed to reward students who stay current with the class, and do not fall behind. Statistics is a topic that can cascade away from you, if you let it. If you put in at least one meaningful hour of out-of-class work for every hour of class, you will almost certainly do well in the course.

Grades will be based on the following 1000-point system: 

Dropped Homework and Quizzes: Your twenty highest homework grades will be added together; the others will be dropped (how many are dropped depends on how many were collected). You may drop two for sure, even if fewer than nineteen homework assignments are collected (if that happens, the final exam grade will count in the empty spaces). Quizzes will be treated the same way (you may drop at least one). Since you can drop homework and quizzes, late homework is NEVER accepted and missed quizzes CANNOT EVER be made up. Ever. Really, I mean it. Even if your goldfish dies, your team is playing in the national championship or you are really, really sick. That's why you get to drop some. Don't waste them early

Dice Rolling: Homework will be collected and quizzes will be given according to a probabilistic scheme. At the beginning of almost every class session, two (somewhat) fair dice will be rolled. The outcome on the dice can be read from the table below. In general, homework is collected 60% of the time, a quiz is given about 28% of the time, and neither happens about 22% of the time.
 

On rare occasions (I am handing back an exam, we have a guest speaker, I'll be away, or something like that), I might propose another system. It's no big deal. Remember though, that if we don't get enough homework or quizzes, the final exam is will fill in the empty spaces. If we have too many, you get to drop more.

Homework: From time-to-time, you may want to turn in homework even when the dice says you don't have to. You can propose this, and I will be happy to have everyone's homework graded, unless three students present object (students who stay home don't get to vote). When this happens, it will count as a regular homework grade.  We will still roll the dice to see if we will have a quiz.

Homework will be assigned every class period, in addition to assumed reading of each section. Each assignment will consist of about an hour's worth of required (collected) homework and about an hour's worth of optional problems. Homework will be both odd and even- numbered problems; all of the optional problems are odd-numbered (with answers in the back of the book). Students are invited to meet with each other, especially those with different backgrounds, to talk about their homework problems and other topics in the class. You should write up your own solutions. Homework is graded on a ten-point system. Once assigned, homework will be posted on Blackboard and on my Web Page: http://www2.truman.edu/~salberts/190hw.htm

Computer Labs: In real life, statistics is normally done with computers. While I will ask you to do some things by hand, just so you learn how to do them, it is also important to learn how computers can make the job easier. Computer Lab assignments will be worth a bit more than homework, except that they will always be due, and you can never drop them. On the other hand, I will accept them late without penalty.

Quizzes: Quizzes occur randomly, based on the roll of the dice at the beginning of the class. A typical quiz is scheduled to take ten minutes, and will contain two problems. Typically, one of the the problems will come directly from the homework (perhaps from the optional problems), and if you did that problem on your homework, you will be able to copy it directly. If you didn't do that problem, or did it incorrectly on your homework, you should still have time to complete it.  Quizzes will be open-book, notes and homework, but will have a strictly enforced time limit.

Exams: Exams are more in-depth than Quizzes, but most of the questions will be similar to those found on Quizzes. Several might be more challenging. Mid-term exams will take the entire class period, and the final exam will be scheduled for two-hours. Midterms are only worth 10% of your grade, each, and the final is worth 15% of your grade (depending on dice rolls), and your best exam is the base of the bonus points (see below).

The class will have three midterm exams, one roughly after chapter 4, one after chapter 7, and one after chapter 9. The final will be at the regularly scheduled time. All exams will be closed book and notes, except for a single sheet of paper you may bring and a list of tables I will provide. For the final, you may bring three sheets.

I hate giving make-up exams. If you are going to be away, take the exam early. You will be penalized 10% to 40% for taking an exam after it is given to the class, even if you have a good reason for taking it late. A zero-percent penalty is possible in true emergencies.

Project: This class has a small project, due in several parts over the course of the semester. It will involve the Huff book, How to Lie with Statistics. In a group of two or three, you will find a data set, formulate a (false) hypothesis regarding it, and write a paper defending your false hypothesis. An attached appendix will tell the real story. This project will be turned in in 2 parts.

Bonus: Best Exam, Participation, Spirit, and Newspapers:
In order for this course to be successful, you must fully participate in the class.

I expect everyone to:

•      be present and prepared for class everyday,

•      work with other members of the class,

•      be willing and able to work on problems in class as required,

•      submit homework assignments on time,

•      be willing and able to ask and answer questions in class,

•      bring a good attitude to class everyday.

To that end, some points are left "up in the air" for this course:

• Assuming that a student's attendance, participation, and effort is acceptable, your base will be your best test score (out of 100). Note that the score is out of 130, so even the best student starts as a C.

• If a student had exceptional participation, you will receive a few bonus points. If a student showed poor citizenship, some of your points will go down the drain. To demonstrate their course citizenship, members may be asked to comment on their own participation and those of their classmates at several times throughout the semester. This is more to reward good citizenship than to penalize bad behavior, but will do some of both.

To get additional bonus points, you may do some short write-ups:

• If you read a newspaper, you can easily find articles that deal with statistics. Clip out the article, write a short write-up (two or three paragraphs) summarizing the article (especially the statistics) and explaining what it has to do with statistics, and I'll give you up to 5 points.

• You may do a similar thing for a Mathematics Colloquia, two talks (from different areas) of the Research Conference, or other campus speaking events. For this write-up, you need to give more description, since you can't attach the article, but I may give you up to 10 points for it, assuming it had some relationship to statistics. These would be good things to announce in class if you know one is coming.

• You may add up to 70 points in this way.

A second source of bonus points are "spirit points":

• When you wear Truman supporting clothes, you show Truman spirit. If you announce some campus-wide Truman event in class, you show Truman spirit. If you promote a school that isn't Truman (with some small exceptions), you are not.

• If you are showing Truman spirit in class, you will earn the class one token. If you show spirit for another school by wearing a sweatshirt, etc., from another school, the class loses two tokens. If the class earns earn ten tokens in a day, the whole class gets one point.

• Over the semester, you may earn up to ten points for the class in this way.

Your total score for the sum of the various kinds of bonus points can go as high as 160 points total (although 135 is full credit). So, if your best exam was a 90, and the class earned 5 spirit points, you should submit 5 newspaper articles, but could write as many as 11.

Flu: If you have a fever, e-mail me and stay home from class until you do not have a fever for 24 hours. As mentioned above, you need a thermometer for this class, anyway, so why not use it when you feel sick. If you get sick around an exam day, we can work something out, but you need to contact me ASAP.
Helpful information can be found at http://studenthealth.truman.edu/self-care_for_influenza.asp

Special Needs: If you have a disability or special need during this class, you should contact me and the Disability Services office (x4478) early in the semester. To ensure specific accommodations, that office must document and verify your needs. While reasonable accommodations will be provided for any special needs, excellence is required of all students in the class.

Tentative Course Schedule:

X = exam, * = short week
Requests to move the final exam (except for moving to the time of another of my classes) MUST be received before Midterm Break.